Massive Bank Losses And Write Downs Drag Risk Appetite And Carry Lower

The high end of the yield curve has taken a significant hit over the past week; and carry trades have suffered the consequences. The DailyFX Carry Trade Index sunk $298 dollars since last Friday after failing to over take a descending trendline that has been directing the basket since risk appetite was tripped up by the subprime meltdown last summer. In turn, a breakdown in USDJPY and other yen crosses has weighed on risk reversals, which show a greater demand for puts. However, during this reversal, the outlook for a BoJ hike over the coming year has eased and volatility cooled, suggesting this will be a more orderly (and perhaps short-lived) carry unwind.