Monday, February 25, 2008

Ambac may not be able to avoid downgrade

NEW YORK (AP) -- A potential $3 billion in new capital still might not be enough to keep Ambac Financial Group Inc. from being downgraded, a Bank of America Securities analyst said Monday.
"In our view, there is still a meaningful risk of downgrades for Ambac," analyst Tamara Kravec wrote in a research note. "Moreover, the question would remain: is $3 billion enough?"
Ambac (ABK) could reach an agreement as early as Monday with a group of banks to provide capital to help the beleaguered bond insurer, The Wall Street Journal reported.
The Wall Street Journal said Ambac could raise about $3 billion as it looks to bolster its capital reserves to cover any potential spike in claims, as a portion of the bond insurance market is expected to sour.
Banks providing funding for the new capital raise could include Citigroup Inc. (C, Fortune 500), UBS AG (UBS), Wachovia Corp. (WB, Fortune 500) and Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC, (RBS) the paper said.
Bond insurers pay out claims when issuers fail to make payments. Ratings agencies have worried in recent months that a sharp rise in defaults among mortgages could spark a wave of defaults among bonds backed by the troubled loans - bonds insured by companies like Ambac. That rise in claims could become unmanageable for the insurers and has forced them to look for outside sources to raise cash to cover potential future defaults.
Fitch Ratings already downgraded Ambac from its crucial "AAA" financial strength rating. Moody's Investors Service said it would complete reviews of ratings on bond insurers by the end of the month.
Bond insurers essentially need a "AAA" rating to book new business.
Even if the capital is enough for Ambac to maintain its "AAA" ratings from Moody's and Standard & Poor's, it will be dilutive to shareholders.
"An equity capital raise of $2.5 billion would be about 20% to 25% dilutive to book value," Kravec wrote in the note.
Kravec maintains a "Neutral" rating on Ambac with a price target of $7.
Shares of Ambac rose 38 cents, or 3.6 percent to $11.09 in premarket trading.

Stocks flat at the start

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stocks were little changed at Monday's open as investors awaited a report on existing home sales and a week's worth of comments from Federal Reserve officials.
The Dow Jones industrial average gained 0.1 percent. The Nasdaq composite index and the Standard & Poor's 500 index each rose less than a point.

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Treasurys fall as stocks advance

Treasury prices dropped Tuesday as investors heartened by Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s earnings report moved funds back into the stock market.
Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, is viewed as a bellwether not only of the retail sector, but of consumer spending. The fact that it managed an improved profit was taken as a sign that the beleaguered consumer may still be active, despite recent indications to the contrary.
The stock and government bonds often trade in opposite directions. Treasurys tend to sell off when investors are feeling confident enough to buy equities and other assets carrying more risk. That was the case Tuesday as investors returned from the Presidents Day holiday and poured money into stocks.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 7/32 to 97 with a yield of 3.86 percent, up from 3.77 percent late Friday. Prices and yields move in opposite directions.
The 30-year long bond lost 13/32 to 95 16/32 with a yield of 4.65 percent, up from 4.58 percent at the end of last week.
The 2-year note lost 1/32 to 100 8/32 with a yield of 1.99 percent, up from 1.92 percent late Friday.
Worries about inflation also contributed to the selling pressure on Treasurys. Investors were taken aback by a vigorous commodities market rally that put crude oil just a short distance from the closely watched $100 a barrel level. Higher energy prices are one of the main drivers of inflation.
Bond investors fear recent heavy interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve have put the economy on an inflationary spiral.
The bond market has an ambivalent attitude toward rate cuts, which are considered positive because they cheapen the cost of money and stimulate market activity. At the same time, cheaper money generally produces higher prices over time and inflation erodes the value of fixed income investments.
The Federal Reserve has lowered the overnight Fed funds target by 1.25 percentage points since the start of 2008 and signaled that more rate cuts are being considered. This has led to worries that a Fed overly focused on stimulating troubled financial markets has grown lax about inflation.
"Traders are worrying more and more about inflation, especially when the Fed seems to be content with driving short-term yields lower and lower," said Kevin Giddis, managing director of fixed-income trading at Morgan Keegan.
Numerous recent vigorous Treasury market rallies in recent weeks have driven yields to levels that many bond market investors believe are too low. Some fear the market has priced in an excessively negative scenario for an economy that is weakening but is not in free fall.
Action Economics said that there are concerns in the market that the Treasury market is "overbought" and noted market speculation that bank and mortgage accounts Tuesday were aggressively selling longer-term bonds.

Thursday, February 14, 2008

Expose Yourself! A Powerful Technique for Breaking Emotional Patterns in Trading

Traders love patterns. We trade chart patterns, oscillator patterns, historical patterns, cyclical patterns—you name the pattern, chances are there’s someone trading it. Much of trading boils down to pattern recognition and the ability to quickly identify and act upon profitable patterns as they occur. This is particularly challenging for active futures and options traders, who must read the patterns, make their decisions, and place their orders within a matter of seconds.

Processing market patterns in the midst of our own emotional patterns—our tendencies toward impulsivity, hesitation, frustration, and regret—is one of the greatest challenges of active trading.

It is always sobering for traders to realize that they are every bit as patterned as the markets they’re trading—and sometimes far more so. In this article, I will draw upon two decades of experience as a clinical psychologist to illustrate a powerful technique for interrupting and changing repetitive emotional and behavioral patterns that disrupt trading. The technique is a cognitive-behavioral method known as exposure, and—in the Ranger tradition described by Brace Barber, Linda Rashcke, and me in September’s issue—it is a powerful tool for challenging oneself for exemplary performance...

The Laws of Charts

Great Ebook, explains in details al types of charts used in technical analysis, from the ebook: A typical 1-2-3 high is formed at the end of an up-trending market. Typically, prices will make a final high (1), proceed downward to point (2) where an upward correction begins; then proceed upward to a point where they resume a downward movement, thereby creating the pivot (3).

There can be more than one bar in the movement from point 1 to point 2, and again from point 2 to point 3. There must be a full correction before points 2 or 3 can be defined.

The number 2 point of a 1-2-3 high is created when a full correction takes place. Full correction means that as prices move up from the potential number 2 point, there must be a single bar that makes both a higher high and a higher low than the preceding bar or a combination of up to three bars creating both the higher high and the higher low. The higher high and the higher low may occur in any order. Subsequent to three bars we have congestion. Congestion will be explained in depth later on in the course. It is possible for both the number 1 and number 2 points to occur on the same bar.

The Difference Between Forex & Shares

Advantage and favorable currency dealings first, is the continuation of dealing 24 hours a day. This leaves room for each dealer to devote part of his time, as circumstances allow for that. While some believe to do the job, while others see career professionally proficient in additional income lactation. They can spend a few hours in the afternoon or evening, regardless of the country or region where they live. The shares Treating the doomed Greenwich country belonging to him. In America, for example believe that the deal begins at 9:30 am and ends at 4:00 pm New York time.
2-in the currency market available at every moment trading conditions, regardless of the state of the economy generally. This situation imposes on the stock market retreat has long-lasting impossible to work. In currencies, a dealer can sell in the market and buy passiveness in the market is high. This provides the possibility of a profit in the case.
3-easily traded currencies due to the small number, Valeraesseh of not more than six pairs, and this offers the possibility of focus and analysis. It also raises the incidence in defining the goal and reduce the error rate, while the shares that are dealing with more than hundreds of thousands, confounding dealer sometimes opted to different ways unsafe side to identify and hand work.
4-in the currency market, you can obtain the free illusory deal, which trained on the progress of work, while not in the stock market. You can also obtain market news periodically and continuous, and the graph too. 5-in the currency market, you can start with the "Arab Online Brokers" deal in a mini-account gives you the danger of trains because Khsartk limited to one point in this account equal to the loss in the extreme case one dollar. This is impossible in other markets.

Forex Trading Systems

The foreign exchange currency market is the largest market in the world because it trades up to $1.9 trillion daily. There is an enormous scope of trade in Forex because it is global, and is open twenty-four hours a day, making the presence of buyers and sellers constant, and the fluidity of the market, grand. The market is ever present because it does not have a central venue like Wall Street or Tokyo. It is a series of internet and telephone communications between buyers and sellers and it is not overseen by any one main authority like the Securities and Exchange Commission. The Forex is made available to traders through platforms. Traders of Forex commonly favor Forex trading systems. Forex trading systems are methods of trading currency based on ideas that have rules associated with them. Forex trading systems are a merging of theory and practice that have been tried and tested over and over, and the results of the tests have been documented. Some Forex trading systems are based on the idea of going against trends. Other Forex trading systems are based on the idea of going with trends. Some Forex trading systems are based on the idea of tracking breakouts of a particular currency and these Forex trading systems rely heavily on the averages of a currency s highs and lows, and utilize Bollinger bands that track the average highs, the average lows and the moving average of the two. Traders utilize Forex trading systems in order to work against human characteristics that can hamper trading, like greed, addiction, impulsivity, compulsivity and fear.

Monday, February 11, 2008

Forex vs. Futures

The origins of today's futures market lies in the agriculture markets of the 19th century. At that time, farmers began selling contracts to deliver agricultural products at a later date. This was done to anticipate market needs and stabilize supply and demand during off seasons. The current futures market includes much more than agricultural products. It is a worldwide market for all sorts of commodities including manufactured goods, agricultural products, and financial instruments such as currencies and treasury bonds. A futures contract states what price will be paid for a product at a specified delivery date. When the futures market is played by speculators, the actual goods are not important and there is no expectation of delivery. Rather, it is the futures contract itself that is traded as the value of that contract changes daily according the market value of the commodity. In every futures contract there is a buyer and a seller. The seller takes the short position and the buyer takes the long position. The futures contract specifies a buying price, a quantity and a delivery date. For example: A farmer agrees to deliver 1000 bushels of wheat to a baker at a price of $5.00 a bushel. If the daily price of wheat futures falls to $4.00 a bushel, the farmer's account is credited with $1000 ($5.00 - $4.00 X 1000 bushels) and the baker's account is debited by the same amount. Futures accounts are settled every day.At the end of the contract period, the contract is settled. If the price of wheat futures is still at $4.00 the farmer will have made $1000 on the futures contract and the baker will have lost the same amount. However, the baker now buys wheat on the open market at $4.00 a bushel - $1000 less than the original contract, so the amount he lost on the futures contract is made up by the cheaper cost of wheat. Similarly, the farmer must sell his wheat on the open market for $4.00 a bushel, less than what he anticipated when entering the futures contract, but the profit generated by the futures contract makes up the difference. The baker, however, is still in effect buying the wheat at $5.00 a bushel, and if he hadn't entered into a futures contract he would have been able to buy wheat at $4.00 a bushel. He protected himself against rising prices but he loses if the market price drops. Speculators hope to profit by the daily fluctuations in the futures market by buying long (from the buyer) if they expect prices to rise or by buying short (from the seller) if they expect prices to fall. FOREX The foreign exchange market (FOREX) has several advantages over the futures market. FOREX is a more liquid market – as the largest financial market in the world it dwarfs the futures market in daily exchanges. This means that stop orders can be executed more easily and with less slippage in the FOREX. The FOREX is open 24 hours a day, 5 days a week. Most futures exchanges are open 7 hours a day. This makes FOREX more liquid and allows FOREX traders to take advantage of trading opportunities as they arise rather than waiting for the market to open. FOREX transactions are commission-free. Brokers earn money by setting a spread – the difference between what a currency can be bought at and what it can be sold at. In contrast, traders must pay a commission or brokerage fee for each futures transaction they enter into. Because of the high volume of trading FOREX transactions are almost instantly executed. This minimizes slippage and increases price certainty. Brokers in the futures market often quote prices reflecting the last trade – not necessarily the price of your transaction. The FOREX is less risky than the futures market because of built-in safeguards in the trading system. Debits in futures are always a possibility because of market gap and slippage.

Listening to Opinion

Kim has entered a short position in crude oil after carefully studying as many factors as she could reasonably include while making her decision to trade. She has entered the trade because her study of the underlying fundamentals has her convinced that crude oil prices must soon begin to fall. Then Kim turns on her television set and begins to watch one of the financial news stations. An “expert” in crude oil is being interviewed. He begins to talk about how crude oil inventories are almost certain to drop this year because oil companies are not doing as much exploration as they have in previous years. Kim listens intently to what he has to say and then begins to doubt her decision about the trade she has entered.

The more she thinks about it, the more panicky she becomes. She considers abandoning her position even though she will end up with a loss. The fact that an “expert” has decided something else completely shakes her confidence. She exits the trade intraday and takes a $400 loss. Prices have not come near her protective stop, which was $700 away from her entry. The market never moves sufficiently far to have taken out her stop. By the end of the day, her crude oil futures have made a new high, and in the following days explodes into a genuine bull market. Instead of a magnificent win, Kim has a loss. The loss is more than money, she has lost confidence in herself.

Money Management

There are some common mistakes I’ve seen traders make in the area of money management. First, let’s understand what money management is all about.

Money management overlaps with risk, trade, business, and personal management, yet it has many aspects that make it unique, distinctly different from all of the other areas of management. In this chapter we want to examine some areas of money management that seem to involve mental quirks leading to costly mistakes.

The Difference Between Forex & Shares

advantage and favorable currency dealings first, is the continuation of dealing 24 hours a day. This leaves room for each dealer to devote part of his time, as circumstances allow for that. While some believe to do the job, while others see career professionally proficient in additional income lactation. They can spend a few hours in the afternoon or evening, regardless of the country or region where they live. The shares Treating the doomed Greenwich country belonging to him. In America, for example believe that the deal begins at 9:30 am and ends at 4:00 pm New York time.
2-in the currency market available at every moment trading conditions, regardless of the state of the economy generally. This situation imposes on the stock market retreat has long-lasting impossible to work. In currencies, a dealer can sell in the market and buy passiveness in the market is high. This provides the possibility of a profit in the case.
3-easily traded currencies due to the small number, Valeraesseh of not more than six pairs, and this offers the possibility of focus and analysis. It also raises the incidence in defining the goal and reduce the error rate, while the shares that are dealing with more than hundreds of thousands, confounding dealer sometimes opted to different ways unsafe side to identify and hand work.
4-in the currency market, you can obtain the free illusory deal, which trained on the progress of work, while not in the stock market. You can also obtain market news periodically and continuous, and the graph too. 5-in the currency market, you can start with the "Arab Online Brokers" deal in a mini-account gives you the danger of trains because Khsartk limited to one point in this account equal to the loss in the extreme case one dollar. This is impossible in other markets.

Euro Capped at 1.4580 Ahead of Tuesdays ZEW

Euro extended its rebound past the 1.4550 mark after ECBs Weber reiterates the central banks willingness to "do anything to counter inflation" and that inflation remains a cause of concern. It is expected that Weber and other ECB members will reaffirm their inflation hawkishness after JC Trcihet accentuated the downside risks to the economy in Thursdays press conference.
We expect EURUSD to remain capped at 1.46 ahead of tomorrows release of the closely watched ZEW investment survey (5.00 am EST) is expected to show further deepening pessimism by German financial market participants. The business sentiment index is expected to have dropped to -43.5 in Feb from -41.6 in Jan while the current situation index is seen at 50 from 56.6. Unlike the IFO, the ZEW survey focuses on financial market participants, who are likely to give more negative responses given the deterioration in the markets and accumulated banking and hedge fund losses. Thus, while there is the possibility of seeing the euro crop up to as high as $1.4590s, the ZEW could potentially drag the pair back to 1.45 and to as low as 1.4460. There will be no US data released on Tuesday, which may accelerate losses towards 1.4440.

Euro Vulnerable to Renewed Losses

Renewed worries on the German banking front are keeping European stocks in the red and lending further support to the Japanese currency on reduced risk appetite. Germanys IKB drops 20% on worries that will announce further write-downs of as much as 2 billion euros according to Reuters. Euro shrugs the news for now, regaining the 1.4550s but we warn of renewed selling tomorrow at the crucial release of the ZEW sentiment survey, which will reflect responses in the aftermath of the Societe General losses. US retail sales on Wednesday and Fed Chairman Bernankes testimony on Thursday will maintain the bias in favor of the Japanese currency as risk appetite remains on the defensive.

Daily currency analysis

Consolidation was a dominant theme on Friday following the substantial Euro losses seen over the previous few days and especially on Thursday. The Euro found support close to 1.4450 against the dollar, but was struggling to break back above the 1.4520 resistance level. Sentiment was still being undermined by speculation that the ECB will cut interest rates during the second quarter.
There were no major data releases and the comments from Fed officials will continue to be watched very closely in the short term. Fed Governor Yellen stated on Friday that she was not confident that the US could avoid recession. Remarks from voting members will be watched closely as markets look to assess whether the Fed wants to send a signal over a pause in rate cuts. In this context, the testimony from Fed Chairman Bernanke next Thursday will be very important for market sentiment.
The German trade surplus declined to EUR10.8bn in December from EUR19.5bn the previous month which will cause some concern over export trends as there was a monthly decline in shipments. There was a rebound in German industrial production, although the annual growth rate slowed slightly.

CHF/USD Fundamental Outlook at 1500 GMT (EST + 0500)

The Swiss franc strengthened marginally vis--vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.0945 level and was capped around the CHF 1.1045 level. Technically, todays intraday low was right around the 23.6% retracement of the move from CHF 1.1595 to CHF 1.0730. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.1155 level. The euro and British pound moved lower vis--vis the Swiss franc as the crosses tested bids around the CHF 1.5940 and CHF 2.1250 levels, respectively.